How it works
Spotting mispricing, not magic
We watch Polymarket and 100+ sportsbooks continuously. When their implied probabilities drift apart far enough to beat the fees, we flag it.
1
Pull prices
Polymarket via WebSocket + 100+ sportsbook books via The Odds API. Tiered cadence: 20s live, 60s near-match, 10m pre-match.
2
Compute edge
net_edge = (sportsbook_prob − pm_ask) ÷ pm_ask − 0.02 fee buffer. We only surface ≥ 3% with ≥ 0.9 name-match confidence.
3
Track outcome
After the game, we pull the final score, mark the thesis Won / Lost / Push, and freeze the record so you can audit our hit rate.
FAQ
- Why does Polymarket mispricing exist?
- Polymarket is a prediction market with limited US retail liquidity — prices are set by the order book, not a pricing model. When a sportsbook updates its odds but Polymarket traders are sleeping, holding, or simply slow to react, the implied probabilities drift apart. That gap is the edge.
- How often does TataEdge scan?
- We run a tiered cadence. During live games, every 20 seconds. In the hour before tip-off, every 60 seconds. For markets further out, every 10 minutes. Polymarket itself streams via WebSocket, so ask-price changes are captured instantly.
- What does a 3% edge actually mean?
- Net edge = (sportsbook implied probability − Polymarket ask) / Polymarket ask, minus a 0.02 trading-fee buffer. A +3% edge means that if the sportsbook is a more accurate market, buying the same outcome on Polymarket gives you roughly a 3% expected value advantage over the long run.
- How many sportsbooks do you compare against?
- 100+ sportsbooks across 6 regions — US, UK, EU, AU, FR, SE. Data is sourced through The Odds API and includes books like DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Pinnacle, Unibet, bet365, Sportsbet, and many more. Full list is on the Coverage page.
- What does Won / Lost / Push / Live mean on the cards?
- After a game finishes, we pull the final score and check whether the side we flagged actually won. Won means our pick covered, Lost means it did not, Push means the game was a tie, Live means the game is still in progress or scores have not yet been ingested.
- Is this financial or betting advice?
- No. TataEdge is a pricing-analysis tool — we surface probability gaps between markets. Whether to act on them, how much to stake, and whether betting is legal where you live are entirely your call. Check local regulations before placing any wager.
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